MATCH OVERVIEW
The upcoming League 2 match between Carlisle United and Port Vale is poised to be a pivotal fixture in the season. Both teams are eager to secure points that could influence their positions in the league table. Carlisle United, playing at home at Brunton Park, will look to leverage their home advantage against a competitive Port Vale side. The match is scheduled for April 18, 2025, at 14:00 GMT, promising an exciting afternoon of football.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a competitive edge for Port Vale, with odds of 2.13 for an away win compared to 3.4 for a Carlisle United victory. The draw is priced at 3.27, indicating a closely contested match. The probabilities derived from these odds are approximately 29.4% for a home win, 30.6% for a draw, and 47% for an away win. Port Vale's slight favoritism reflects their stronger form and higher league position.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Carlisle United
Carlisle United has had a challenging season, with an average of 0.83 goals per match and a possession rate of 51.68%. Their defense has been a concern, conceding 1.54 goals per game. Despite these challenges, they have shown resilience, with a successful dribble rate of 17.34 per match.
Port Vale
Port Vale has been more consistent, averaging 1.32 goals per match and maintaining a solid defensive record with only 0.98 goals conceded per game. Their possession rate of 49.07% and successful duels rate of 114.8 highlight their competitive edge.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Port Vale has had the upper hand in recent encounters, which could play a psychological role in this fixture. Carlisle United will need to break this trend to secure a win.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Carlisle United
- Sam Lavelle: With 4 goals this season, Lavelle is a key figure in Carlisle's attack.
- Kadeem Harris: His dribbling skills and 3 goals make him a crucial player.
Port Vale
- Lorent Tolaj: Leading the scoring charts with 11 goals, Tolaj is a significant threat.
- Jayden Stockley: His 9 goals add depth to Port Vale's attacking options.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Carlisle United averages 10.27 shots per game, with 3.54 on target.
- Port Vale slightly edges with 11 shots per game and 3.71 on target.
Defensive Metrics
- Carlisle United's defense has been tested, averaging 1.54 goals conceded.
- Port Vale's defense is more robust, conceding only 0.98 goals per game.
Tactical Insights
Port Vale's higher CompaScore ratings in offensive and defensive categories suggest a more balanced team capable of controlling the game.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data and current form, Port Vale appears to have the upper hand in this fixture. Their superior scoring ability and defensive solidity could be decisive factors. Carlisle United will need to capitalize on their home advantage and improve their defensive performance to challenge Port Vale effectively.
Final Score Prediction
Port Vale is likely to secure a victory with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. The match could see both teams scoring, given the BTTS probability of 48.78% and an over 2.5 goals probability of 46.34%.
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