Match Overview
The upcoming Copa Libertadores match between Defensor Sporting and Alianza Lima is a pivotal encounter in the group stage. Both teams are vying for a spot in the knockout rounds, and a win here could significantly boost their chances. The Estadio Luis Franzini will host this exciting fixture, with kick-off scheduled for 21:00 UTC on March 5, 2025.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match are as follows: Defensor Sporting at 2.58, Draw at 3.16, and Alianza Lima at 2.76. These odds suggest a closely contested match, with Defensor Sporting having a slight edge as the home team. The probability of a home win stands at approximately 38.8%, while an away win is at 36.2%, and a draw at 31.6%. Given these odds, a narrow victory for Defensor Sporting seems the most likely outcome.
Team Analysis
Defensor Sporting
- Current Form: Defensor Sporting has struggled offensively this season, averaging 0 goals per match.
- Strengths: High possession rate (60%) and strong dribbling success (20.5 successful dribbles per match).
- Weaknesses: Lack of goals and assists, with an average of 0 in both categories.
- Head-to-Head: Historically, Defensor Sporting has had mixed results against Alianza Lima.
- Tactical Approach: Expect a possession-based game, focusing on controlling the midfield.
Alianza Lima
- Current Form: Alianza Lima has shown better offensive capabilities, averaging 1.5 goals per match.
- Strengths: High Both Teams To Score percentage (75%) and effective shooting with 6.5 shots on target per match.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1 goal per match.
- Head-to-Head: Alianza Lima has been competitive in past encounters with Defensor Sporting.
- Tactical Approach: Likely to adopt a counter-attacking strategy, leveraging their offensive strengths.
Key Players Spotlight
Defensor Sporting
- Juan Viacava: Leading performer with 202.12 points this season.
- Guillermo de los Santos: Key defensive figure with 142.06 points.
Alianza Lima
- Hernán Barcos: Top scorer with 3 goals this season, crucial for Alianza's attack.
- Pablo Ceppelini: Creative force with 136.92 points, contributing to the team's offensive play.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Alianza Lima leads with an average of 1.5 goals per match compared to Defensor's 0.
- Defensive Metrics: Defensor Sporting concedes more goals (2 per match) than Alianza Lima (1 per match).
- Possession and Passing: Defensor Sporting excels in possession (60%) and passing accuracy, with 328.5 successful passes per match.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the statistical analysis and current form, Defensor Sporting is slightly favored to win, primarily due to their home advantage and possession play. However, Alianza Lima's offensive prowess cannot be underestimated. Key factors such as Hernán Barcos' goal-scoring ability and Defensor's defensive resilience will likely determine the outcome.
Final Score Prediction: Defensor Sporting 1-1 Alianza Lima Half Time Score Prediction: Defensor Sporting 0-0 Alianza Lima Both Teams to Score Probability: 60% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 45%
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