ODDS ANALYSIS
- Home Win Odds: 1.97
- Draw Odds: 3.43
- Away Win Odds: 3.83
The odds suggest a slight edge for Mainz 05, with a 50.76% probability of winning. The draw stands at 29.15%, while Freiburg has a 26.11% chance of victory. Given these odds, Mainz 05 is expected to leverage their home advantage to secure a win.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Mainz 05
- Current Form: Mainz 05 has shown a balanced performance with an average of 1.63 goals per match and a solid defense conceding only 1.04 goals per game.
- Strengths: Strong in duels (96 successful per match) and effective in dribbles (13.58 successful per match).
- Weaknesses: Vulnerable to dangerous losses in their own half (7 per match).
Freiburg
- Current Form: Freiburg averages 1.42 goals per match but concedes 1.5 goals, indicating a need for defensive improvement.
- Strengths: High expected goals (1.47) and effective passing with 362.33 successful passes per match.
- Weaknesses: Lower success in duels compared to Mainz 05.
Head-to-Head
- Mainz 05 and Freiburg have had closely contested matches in the past, with Mainz often having the upper hand at home.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Mainz 05
- Jonathan Burkardt: Top scorer with 14 goals, crucial for Mainz's attacking prowess.
- Robin Zentner: Key defensive figure with 323.26 points this season.
Freiburg
- Vincenzo Grifo: Leading scorer with 8 goals, vital for Freiburg's offensive strategy.
- Ritsu Doan: Another key player with 8 goals, providing depth in attack.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
- Offensive Metrics: Mainz 05 averages 10.29 shots per match, slightly lower than Freiburg's 10.83.
- Defensive Metrics: Mainz's defense is more robust, conceding fewer goals (1.04) compared to Freiburg (1.5).
- Possession and Passing: Both teams have similar possession stats, but Freiburg edges Mainz in successful passes.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Mainz 05's home advantage and stronger defensive record give them the edge in this matchup. Key factors include Burkardt's goal-scoring form and Zentner's defensive capabilities. Freiburg will rely on Grifo and Doan to challenge Mainz's defense. Expect a competitive match with Mainz likely to come out on top.