Match Overview
The clash between Gimnasia La Plata and Estudiantes is more than just a local derby; it's a pivotal match in the Primera División season. With both teams striving to climb the league table, this encounter could significantly impact their standings. Gimnasia, playing at home, will look to leverage their familiarity with the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, while Estudiantes aim to capitalize on their recent form.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match suggest a closely contested battle. Gimnasia La Plata's odds stand at 2.81, indicating a 35.6% probability of a home win. Estudiantes, slightly favored with odds of 2.59, have a 38.6% chance of securing an away victory. The draw is priced at 2.9, reflecting a 34.5% probability. These odds highlight the competitive nature of the fixture, with Estudiantes having a slight edge.
Team Analysis
Gimnasia La Plata
- Current Form: Gimnasia has struggled this season, averaging only 0.64 goals per match and conceding 1 goal per game.
- Strengths: Their dribbling ability is notable, with 19.91 dribbles per match and a success rate of 71.7%.
- Weaknesses: Offensive output is a concern, with only 2.64 shots on target per game.
- Head-to-Head: Historically, Gimnasia has found it challenging against Estudiantes, often falling short in key matches.
Estudiantes
- Current Form: Estudiantes have been more prolific, averaging 1.55 goals per match.
- Strengths: Their possession rate of 51.82% and passing accuracy are key assets.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities are evident, with 1 goal conceded per match.
- Head-to-Head: Estudiantes have a favorable record against Gimnasia, often dominating the fixture.
Key Players Spotlight
Gimnasia La Plata
- Rodrigo Castillo: With 4 goals this season, Castillo is Gimnasia's main attacking threat.
- Leonardo Morales: A solid defender, Morales contributes both defensively and offensively.
Estudiantes
- Santiago Ascacíbar: Leading the team with 4 goals, Ascacíbar is crucial to Estudiantes' attack.
- Tiago Palacios: His creativity and goal-scoring ability make him a key player.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Estudiantes average 12.36 shots per game, significantly higher than Gimnasia's 8.64.
- Defensive Metrics: Both teams concede 1 goal per match, but Estudiantes have a slightly better expected goals against (1.02).
- Possession and Passing: Estudiantes' superior possession (51.82%) and passing accuracy could be decisive.
Prediction and Conclusion
Given the statistical insights and current form, Estudiantes are likely to edge out Gimnasia in this encounter. Their offensive prowess and historical advantage in head-to-head matchups position them as favorites. Key factors such as possession and goal-scoring ability will play a crucial role.
Final Score Prediction: Estudiantes 2-1 Gimnasia La Plata Half Time Score Prediction: Estudiantes 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Both Teams to Score Probability: 54% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 45%