MATCH OVERVIEW
Stevenage will host Northampton Town in a pivotal League 1 match that could influence the standings early in the season. With both teams having played two matches so far, they are eager to secure valuable points. Stevenage, playing at home, will look to leverage their home advantage and improve their position in the league. The match is set to take place at Stevenage's home ground, with kickoff scheduled for 14:00 on August 16, 2025.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a favorable outcome for Stevenage, with odds of 1.64 for a home win, indicating a 60.98% probability. The draw is priced at 3.31, translating to a 30.21% chance, while Northampton Town's odds of 4.98 suggest a 20.08% probability of an away victory. Based on these odds, Stevenage is expected to have the upper hand, but the possibility of a draw remains significant.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Stevenage
Stevenage has shown a solid start to the season, averaging 2 goals per match and maintaining a 50% success rate in both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score scenarios. Their possession stands at 39.5%, indicating a counter-attacking style. Defensively, they have conceded only 1 goal per match, supported by a strong defensive rating of 426.07.
Northampton Town
Northampton Town, on the other hand, has struggled offensively, averaging only 0.5 goals per match. Their possession rate of 55% suggests a more controlling approach, but they have conceded 1.5 goals per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Their offensive rating is notably lower at 153.31, which could be a concern against Stevenage's defense.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Stevenage has had the edge over Northampton Town, with better performance metrics in recent encounters. This trend could continue, given Stevenage's current form and home advantage.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Stevenage
- Jamie Reid: With 3 goals this season, Reid is a key offensive threat for Stevenage.
- Carl Piergianni: Leading in points, Piergianni's defensive contributions are crucial.
Northampton Town
- Michael Forbes: Scoring 1 goal, Forbes will be vital in breaking Stevenage's defense.
- Lee Burge: As the goalkeeper, Burge's performance will be critical in keeping Northampton competitive.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Stevenage averages 9 shots per match, with 3 on target, while Northampton Town averages 6 shots, with 2.5 on target.
- Stevenage's expected goals stand at 1.85, compared to Northampton's 0.81.
Defensive Metrics
- Stevenage's expected goals against is 0.45, showcasing a strong defensive setup.
- Northampton Town's expected goals against is higher at 1.52, indicating potential defensive lapses.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Stevenage is likely to dominate the match, leveraging their offensive capabilities and home advantage. Key factors include Stevenage's higher expected goals and solid defensive record. Northampton Town will need to improve their offensive output to challenge Stevenage effectively.
Final Score Prediction
Stevenage 2-0 Northampton Town
Half Time Score Prediction
Stevenage 1-0 Northampton Town
Probability Insights
- Home Win: 60.98%
- Away Win: 20.08%
- Draw: 30.21%
- Both Teams to Score: 50%
- Over 2.5 Goals: 50%
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