MATCH OVERVIEW
The Copa Libertadores match between Nacional Asunción and Alianza Lima is poised to be a captivating contest. Nacional Asunción, playing at home, will look to leverage their familiarity with the Estadio Defensores del Chaco to gain an advantage. Meanwhile, Alianza Lima, traveling from Peru, aims to upset the hosts and secure vital points in the group stage.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds favor Nacional Asunción with a 1.51 chance of winning, translating to a probability of approximately 66.23%. The draw is priced at 3.89, indicating a 25.71% chance, while Alianza Lima's odds of 6.01 suggest a 16.64% probability of an away victory. Given these odds, Nacional Asunción is expected to dominate, but the potential for a draw remains significant.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Nacional Asunción
- Current Form: Nacional Asunción has shown mixed results this season, with an average of 2 matches played.
- Strengths: Their ability to score consistently, with a 100% Both Teams To Score rate, is a key asset.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities are evident, conceding an average of 2 goals per match.
Alianza Lima
- Current Form: Alianza Lima has played 9 matches, showcasing a more extensive competitive experience.
- Strengths: Their offensive prowess is highlighted by a 55.56% Over 2.5 Goals rate.
- Weaknesses: Discipline issues, with an average of 3.44 yellow cards per match, could be detrimental.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Nacional Asunción and Alianza Lima have had limited encounters, making this match a fresh challenge for both teams.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Nacional Asunción
- Gustavo Caballero: A pivotal player with 117.45 points, contributing significantly to the team's offensive efforts.
- Orlando Gaona Lugo: Another key figure, scoring 1 goal this season.
Alianza Lima
- Kevin Quevedo: A standout performer with 4 goals, his attacking threat is crucial for Alianza Lima.
- Hernán Barcos: Also with 4 goals, his experience adds depth to the team's forward line.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Nacional Asunción: Average of 11 shots per match, with 2.5 on target.
- Alianza Lima: Higher accuracy with 5.22 shots on target from 12.33 attempts.
Defensive Metrics
- Nacional Asunción: Concedes 2 goals per match, indicating defensive frailties.
- Alianza Lima: Slightly better with 1.22 goals conceded per match.
Possession and Passing
- Nacional Asunción: Lower possession at 37.5%, with 197 passes per match.
- Alianza Lima: Superior possession at 46%, completing 325.89 passes.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Nacional Asunción is favored to win, but Alianza Lima's attacking capabilities cannot be underestimated. Key factors such as home advantage and player form will play a crucial role.
Final Score Prediction
Nacional Asunción 2-1 Alianza Lima
Half Time Score Prediction
Nacional Asunción 1-0 Alianza Lima
Match-Winning Factors
- Nacional Asunción: Home advantage and offensive consistency.
- Alianza Lima: Potential to exploit defensive gaps and capitalize on set-pieces.
In conclusion, while Nacional Asunción is expected to secure a victory, Alianza Lima's resilience and attacking threat could lead to a closely contested match.