Match Overview
Shanghai Port enters this match with a formidable home advantage, having shown impressive form in the early stages of the season. Their offensive prowess, highlighted by an average of 3 goals per match, makes them a daunting opponent for any team. Meanwhile, Changchun Yatai, despite being the underdogs, have shown resilience and will look to exploit any defensive lapses from their hosts.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match are heavily in favor of Shanghai Port, with a home win priced at 1.44, translating to a 69.4% probability. The draw is set at 4.14 (24.2% probability), while an away win for Changchun Yatai is at 7.21 (13.9% probability). These odds suggest a strong likelihood of a home victory, reflecting Shanghai Port's superior form and home advantage.
Team Analysis
Shanghai Port
- Current Form: Shanghai Port has been dominant, with a 100% success rate in both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score metrics.
- Strengths: High possession (56%), prolific goal-scoring (3 goals per match), and strong defensive metrics (0.45 expected goals against).
- Weaknesses: Occasional defensive lapses, as indicated by 1 goal conceded per match.
Changchun Yatai
- Current Form: Struggling with possession (37%) and goal-scoring (1 goal per match).
- Strengths: High interception rate (71 per match) and resilience in duels (245 duels per match).
- Weaknesses: Vulnerable defense with 2 goals conceded per match and a high expected goals against (3.66).
Head-to-Head
Historically, Shanghai Port has had the upper hand in this fixture, often leveraging their home advantage to secure victories. Changchun Yatai will need to break this trend to secure a positive result.
Tactical Approaches
Shanghai Port is likely to adopt an aggressive, possession-based approach, utilizing their superior passing and dribbling skills. Changchun Yatai may focus on a counter-attacking strategy, relying on their defensive solidity and quick transitions.
Key Players Spotlight
Shanghai Port
- Gustavo: Leading the charge with 2 goals this season, his attacking prowess will be crucial.
- Matheus Jussa: A versatile player contributing both defensively and offensively.
Changchun Yatai
- Long Tan: A key figure in attack, having scored 1 goal this season.
- Yake Wu: A standout performer with significant contributions across the pitch.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Shanghai Port averages 16 shots per match, with 8 on target, compared to Changchun Yatai's 4 shots and 2 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Shanghai Port's expected goals against is significantly lower (0.45) than Changchun Yatai's (3.66), indicating a stronger defensive setup.
Prediction and Conclusion
Given the statistical advantages and current form, Shanghai Port is expected to secure a comfortable victory. Key factors include their superior offensive capabilities and home advantage. The final score prediction is a 3-1 win for Shanghai Port, with a high probability of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals being achieved.