Port Vale enters this match with a slight edge, given their home advantage and better overall performance metrics this season. They have averaged 1.26 goals per game, showcasing a solid offensive capability, while their defense has been relatively tight, conceding only 1.06 goals per match. Morecambe, on the other hand, has struggled offensively, averaging just 0.86 goals per game, and their defense has been more porous, conceding 1.5 goals per match.
The odds favor Port Vale with a 1.75 chance of winning, translating to a 57.14% probability. A draw is less likely at 3.68 odds (27.17% probability), while Morecambe's chances of an upset stand at 4.57 odds (21.88% probability). These odds suggest that Port Vale is expected to dominate, but Morecambe could still pose a threat if they capitalize on their counter-attacking opportunities.
Port Vale's strengths lie in their possession play, averaging 49.8%, and their ability to create chances, with 10.57 shots per game. Their key players, such as Lorent Tolaj and Jayden Stockley, who have both scored 7 goals this season, will be crucial in breaking down Morecambe's defense. Morecambe will rely on Ben Tollitt, their top scorer with 6 goals, to find the net and exploit any defensive lapses from Port Vale.
Head-to-head statistics show Port Vale's dominance, with a higher CompaScore Rating of 1199.85 compared to Morecambe's 1052.29. Port Vale's tactical approach will likely focus on maintaining possession and utilizing their successful dribbling rate of 14.57 to penetrate Morecambe's defense. Morecambe, with a lower possession rate of 45.25%, may opt for a more defensive setup, aiming to hit Port Vale on the break.
Key player matchups include Port Vale's Nathan Smith against Morecambe's Jamie Stott, both of whom have been pivotal in their respective defenses. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Port Vale's Ben Garrity and Morecambe's Luke Hendrie looking to control the tempo and supply their forwards.
Statistically, Port Vale holds the advantage in offensive metrics, with a higher expected goals (xG) of 1.22 compared to Morecambe's 1.1. Defensively, Port Vale's expected goals against (xGA) of 1.18 is superior to Morecambe's 1.61, indicating a more robust defensive setup.
In conclusion, Port Vale is favored to win this match, given their superior form and home advantage. Key factors such as possession, goal-scoring ability, and defensive solidity will likely determine the outcome. A final score prediction of 2-1 in favor of Port Vale seems plausible, with both teams expected to score given their respective BTTS percentages of 54.29% and 36.11%.
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