MATCH OVERVIEW
Erzgebirge Aue and Ingolstadt are gearing up for a pivotal clash in the 3. Liga, with both teams eager to secure vital points as the season nears its conclusion. Erzgebirge Aue, playing at home, will look to leverage their familiarity with Erzgebirgsstadion to gain an edge over Ingolstadt. The match, set for May 4, 2025, at 14:30, is crucial for both teams as they aim to solidify their positions in the league standings.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds for this match are remarkably balanced, with Erzgebirge Aue having a slight edge at 2.55 compared to Ingolstadt's 2.54. The draw is priced at 3.61, indicating a competitive encounter. The probabilities suggest a closely contested match, with Erzgebirge Aue having a 39.22% chance of winning, Ingolstadt at 39.37%, and a draw at 27.71%. Given the odds, a narrow victory for either side seems likely, but the possibility of a draw cannot be discounted.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue has shown resilience this season, with a solid average of 1.38 goals per match and a possession rate of 50.35%. Their offensive capabilities are highlighted by a 61.76% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals. However, their defense has been less robust, conceding an average of 1.71 goals per game.
Ingolstadt
Ingolstadt boasts a stronger offensive record, averaging 1.94 goals per match and a higher shots on target rate of 5.24. Their defense, while slightly better than Aue's, still concedes 1.58 goals per game. Ingolstadt's ability to score and their 72.73% rate of both teams scoring in matches make them a formidable opponent.
Head-to-Head
Historically, matches between these two teams have been tightly contested, with neither side dominating. This balance is reflected in the current odds and suggests another close encounter.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Erzgebirge Aue
- Marcel Bär: With 11 goals this season, Bär is Aue's top scorer and a key player to watch.
- Marvin Stefaniak: Contributing 7 goals, Stefaniak's playmaking abilities are crucial for Aue's attack.
Ingolstadt
- Sebastian Grönning: Leading the charge with 16 goals, Grönning is Ingolstadt's main threat.
- Pascal Testroet: With 7 goals, Testroet adds depth to Ingolstadt's attacking options.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Erzgebirge Aue: Average 9.88 shots per game, with 3.76 on target.
- Ingolstadt: Average 13.21 shots per game, with 5.24 on target.
Defensive Metrics
- Erzgebirge Aue: Concede 1.71 goals per game, with 41.32 interceptions.
- Ingolstadt: Concede 1.58 goals per game, with 42 interceptions.
Possession and Passing
- Erzgebirge Aue: 407.06 passes per game, with a success rate of 329.91.
- Ingolstadt: 366.21 passes per game, with a success rate of 292.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, this match is expected to be a closely fought contest with both teams having the potential to score. Ingolstadt's superior offensive metrics give them a slight edge, but Erzgebirge Aue's home advantage could level the playing field. Key factors will include the performance of top scorers and defensive solidity.
Final Score Prediction
A narrow victory for Ingolstadt seems plausible, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. However, a draw remains a strong possibility given the balanced odds and historical encounters.