Match Overview
The upcoming 3. Liga match between Erzgebirge Aue and Stuttgart II is set to be a captivating contest. Erzgebirge Aue, currently sitting in the mid-table, will be eager to leverage their home advantage at the Erzgebirgsstadion. Meanwhile, Stuttgart II, known for their resilience, will aim to upset the hosts and climb the league standings.
Odds Analysis
- Home Win: 2.09 (47.8% probability)
- Draw: 3.61 (27.7% probability)
- Away Win: 3.33 (30.0% probability)
The odds suggest a slight edge for Erzgebirge Aue, with a 47.8% chance of securing a victory. However, Stuttgart II's odds indicate they are not to be underestimated, with a 30.0% probability of winning. The draw, at 27.7%, remains a plausible outcome, reflecting the competitive nature of this fixture.
Team Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
- Current Form: Erzgebirge Aue has shown a balanced performance this season, with a possession rate of 50.59% and an average of 1.38 goals per match.
- Strengths: Strong in dribbles (12.07 successful per match) and duels (90.07 successful per match), indicating a robust midfield presence.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities with 1.55 goals conceded per match and an expected goals against of 1.66.
Stuttgart II
- Current Form: Stuttgart II has maintained a slightly higher possession rate at 52.76% but has struggled defensively, conceding 1.66 goals per match.
- Strengths: Effective in duels (96.03 successful per match) and interceptions (44.62 per match), showcasing defensive tenacity.
- Weaknesses: Lower goal-scoring rate at 1.28 goals per match and a higher expected goals against of 1.8.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Erzgebirge Aue has had the upper hand in previous encounters, but Stuttgart II's recent form suggests they could pose a significant challenge.
Tactical Approaches
Erzgebirge Aue is likely to focus on maintaining possession and exploiting their dribbling skills, while Stuttgart II may adopt a counter-attacking strategy, leveraging their defensive strengths.
Key Players Spotlight
Erzgebirge Aue
- Marcel Bär: Top scorer with 11 goals, crucial for Aue's attacking prowess.
- Marvin Stefaniak: Key playmaker with 6 goals, instrumental in creating opportunities.
Stuttgart II
- Wahid Faghir: Leading the attack with 6 goals, pivotal for Stuttgart's offensive efforts.
- Dennis Seimen: Defensive stalwart, contributing significantly to Stuttgart's backline.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Erzgebirge Aue averages 10.28 shots per match, slightly higher than Stuttgart II's 9.55.
- Defensive Metrics: Stuttgart II has a higher average of goalkeeper saves at 4.31 compared to Aue's 3.17, indicating a more tested defense.
Prediction and Conclusion
Given the statistical insights and current form, Erzgebirge Aue holds a slight advantage, especially with home support. However, Stuttgart II's defensive resilience could lead to a tightly contested match.
- Potential Match-Winning Factors: Aue's home advantage and superior dribbling skills.
- Final Score Prediction: Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Stuttgart II
- Half Time Score Prediction: Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Stuttgart II
- Both Teams to Score Probability: 62%
- Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 58%