Match Overview
The upcoming 3. Liga match between Erzgebirge Aue and Viktoria Köln is set to be a pivotal encounter in the league. With both teams showing competitive form, this match could have a substantial impact on their respective campaigns. Erzgebirge Aue, playing at home, will look to leverage their home advantage, while Viktoria Köln aims to secure valuable away points.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match suggest a slight edge for Erzgebirge Aue with odds of 2.11, indicating a 47.4% probability of a home win. The draw is priced at 3.54, translating to a 28.2% chance, while Viktoria Köln's odds of 3.14 suggest a 31.8% probability of an away victory. Based on these odds, Erzgebirge Aue is favored, but the match remains open with a significant chance for a draw or an away win.
Team Analysis
Erzgebirge Aue
- Current Form: Erzgebirge Aue has shown a balanced performance this season with an average of 1.48 goals per match and a possession rate of 50.64%.
- Strengths: Strong in dribbling with 12.04 successful dribbles per match and a solid passing game with 335.68 successful passes.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities with 1.52 goals conceded per match and a high expected goals against of 1.69.
Viktoria Köln
- Current Form: Viktoria Köln has been slightly more prolific in front of goal with 1.62 goals per match and a possession rate of 49.5%.
- Strengths: Effective in duels with 96.31 successful duels per match and a strong defensive rating.
- Weaknesses: Lower passing accuracy with 317.65 successful passes and a tendency to concede goals with 1.35 per match.
Head-to-Head
Historically, matches between these two teams have been closely contested, with both sides having their share of victories. The tactical approach will be crucial, with Erzgebirge Aue likely to focus on maintaining possession and exploiting their dribbling skills, while Viktoria Köln may rely on their defensive solidity and counter-attacking prowess.
Key Players Spotlight
Erzgebirge Aue
- Marcel Bär: Top scorer with 10 goals, crucial in leading the attack.
- Marvin Stefaniak: Key playmaker with 6 goals, instrumental in creating chances.
Viktoria Köln
- Serhat-Semih Güler: Leading scorer with 13 goals, a constant threat in the attacking third.
- Lex-Tyger Lobinger: Significant contributor with 11 goals, adding depth to the forward line.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Erzgebirge Aue averages 10.64 shots per match, while Viktoria Köln averages 10 shots, indicating a balanced offensive threat.
- Defensive Metrics: Erzgebirge Aue's defense is tested with 1.52 goals conceded per match, whereas Viktoria Köln concedes 1.35, showing a slight defensive edge.
- Possession and Passing: Erzgebirge Aue's possession and passing accuracy are marginally better, which could be pivotal in controlling the game's tempo.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the statistical analysis and current form, Erzgebirge Aue holds a slight advantage, especially playing at home. Key factors such as Marcel Bär's goal-scoring ability and Viktoria Köln's defensive resilience will be decisive. Expect a closely fought match with potential for both teams to score. Final score prediction: Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Viktoria Köln.