MATCH OVERVIEW
Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05 are gearing up for a pivotal Bundesliga clash at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund, known for their attacking flair, will look to capitalize on their home advantage. Meanwhile, Mainz 05, with their solid defensive record, will aim to disrupt Dortmund's rhythm. This match holds significant weight in the Bundesliga standings, as both teams are vying for crucial points to enhance their league positions.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match are in favor of Borussia Dortmund, with a home win priced at 1.72. The odds for a draw stand at 3.87, while an away win for Mainz 05 is at 4.23. These odds suggest a 58% probability for a Dortmund victory, a 26% chance for a draw, and a 24% likelihood of a Mainz win. Given Dortmund's strong home form, they are expected to edge out Mainz in this encounter.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Borussia Dortmund
- Current Form: Dortmund has been impressive this season, averaging 1.79 goals per match and maintaining a possession rate of 61.96%.
- Strengths: High possession and passing accuracy, with 573.08 passes per game and a CompaScore Offensive Rating of 962.89.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.58 goals per match.
- Head-to-Head: Historically, Dortmund has had the upper hand against Mainz, often dominating possession and creating more chances.
Mainz 05
- Current Form: Mainz has shown resilience, with an average of 1.68 goals per match and a solid defensive record, conceding only 1.04 goals per game.
- Strengths: Strong defensive metrics, including 45.96 interceptions per game and a CompaScore Defensive Rating of 614.78.
- Weaknesses: Lower possession and passing accuracy compared to Dortmund.
- Head-to-Head: Mainz will look to exploit Dortmund's defensive lapses, having managed to secure points in previous encounters.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Borussia Dortmund
- Serhou Guirassy: Top scorer with 14 goals, crucial for Dortmund's attacking play.
- Nico Schlotterbeck: Key defensive figure, contributing significantly to duels and interceptions.
Mainz 05
- Jonathan Burkardt: Leading scorer with 14 goals, vital for Mainz's offensive efforts.
- Robin Zentner: Goalkeeper with 320.12 points, pivotal in maintaining Mainz's defensive solidity.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
- Offensive Metrics: Dortmund averages 12.79 shots per game, with 4.5 on target, while Mainz averages 10.52 shots, with 4.2 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Dortmund's expected goals against is 1.28, whereas Mainz's is 1.58, indicating a tighter defense for Mainz.
- Possession and Passing: Dortmund's possession rate of 61.96% and 502.92 successful passes per game highlight their control, compared to Mainz's 48.64% possession and 349.88 successful passes.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Borussia Dortmund is favored to win, leveraging their home advantage and superior attacking metrics. Key factors include Dortmund's ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities through players like Guirassy. Mainz's defensive resilience will be tested, but their ability to counter-attack could pose challenges for Dortmund.
Final Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Mainz 05 Half Time Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Mainz 05 Probability for Both Teams to Score: 67% Probability for Over 2.5 Goals: 67%