Match Overview
This Bundesliga clash between Borussia M'gladbach and Mainz 05 is pivotal as both teams aim to climb the league table. Borussia M'gladbach, playing at home, will look to leverage their home advantage, while Mainz 05 seeks to capitalize on their recent form to secure an away victory.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match are set at 2.48 for a Borussia M'gladbach win, 3.46 for a draw, and 2.76 for a Mainz 05 victory. These odds suggest a closely contested match, with Borussia M'gladbach slightly favored due to their home advantage. The probability of a home win stands at approximately 40.3%, a draw at 28.9%, and an away win at 36.2%.
Team Analysis
Borussia M'gladbach
- Current Form: Borussia M'gladbach has shown a mixed form this season, with an average of 1.45 goals per match and a possession rate of 49.73%.
- Strengths: Strong in dribbling with 13 successful dribbles per match and a solid offensive rating of 824.97.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities with 1.5 goals conceded per match and an expected goals against of 1.71.
Mainz 05
- Current Form: Mainz 05 has been slightly more consistent, averaging 1.61 goals per match and a possession rate of 48.83%.
- Strengths: Effective in duels with 96.09 successful duels per match and a defensive rating of 616.2.
- Weaknesses: Prone to conceding with an expected goals against of 1.57.
Head-to-Head
In their recent encounters, both teams have had competitive matches, with neither side dominating the other. This balance suggests another tight contest.
Tactical Approaches
Borussia M'gladbach is likely to focus on their dribbling and passing game, while Mainz 05 may rely on their defensive solidity and counter-attacking prowess.
Key Players Spotlight
- Borussia M'gladbach: Tim Kleindienst, with 12 goals this season, will be crucial in leading the attack. His partnership with Alassane Plea, who has 6 goals, could be decisive.
- Mainz 05: Jonathan Burkardt, the top scorer with 13 goals, will be the main threat for Mainz 05. Jae-sung Lee, with 6 goals, adds depth to their attacking options.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Borussia M'gladbach averages 11.09 shots per match, with 4.82 on target, while Mainz 05 averages 10.22 shots, with 4.17 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Borussia M'gladbach's defense is tested with 1.5 goals conceded per match, whereas Mainz 05 concedes 1.04 goals per match.
- Possession and Passing: Borussia M'gladbach averages 485.41 passes per match with a success rate of 84.1%, while Mainz 05 averages 426.83 passes with an 80.7% success rate.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the analysis, this match is expected to be closely contested. Borussia M'gladbach's home advantage and offensive capabilities could give them a slight edge. However, Mainz 05's defensive strength and counter-attacking potential make them formidable opponents.
Potential Match-Winning Factors
- Borussia M'gladbach's ability to capitalize on home advantage and Tim Kleindienst's goal-scoring form.
- Mainz 05's defensive resilience and Jonathan Burkardt's attacking prowess.
Final Score Prediction
A narrow victory for Borussia M'gladbach seems likely, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1.