Match Overview
The upcoming Bundesliga clash between St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund is more than just a regular fixture; it's a pivotal moment in the season for both teams. Dortmund, currently in the hunt for a top-four finish, will be looking to capitalize on their superior form and statistics. Meanwhile, St. Pauli, playing at home, will aim to leverage their home advantage to secure valuable points.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match suggest a strong leaning towards an away victory for Borussia Dortmund, with odds of 1.89. This translates to a probability of approximately 52.9% for a Dortmund win. St. Pauli, with odds of 4.22, has a 23.7% chance of winning, while the draw is priced at 3.71, indicating a 26.9% probability. The odds clearly favor Dortmund, reflecting their superior form and squad depth.
Team Analysis
St. Pauli
- Current Form: St. Pauli has struggled this season, with an average of 0.78 goals per match and a possession rate of 44.57%.
- Strengths: Their defensive resilience is notable, with an average of 1.17 goals conceded per match.
- Weaknesses: Offensively, they have been underwhelming, with only 7 matches over 2.5 goals and a low BTTS percentage of 21.74%.
Borussia Dortmund
- Current Form: Dortmund has been impressive, averaging 1.86 goals per match and maintaining a high possession rate of 62%.
- Strengths: Their attacking prowess is evident, with a 72.73% rate of matches over 2.5 goals.
- Weaknesses: Defensively, they concede 1.68 goals per match, which could be a vulnerability.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Dortmund has dominated this fixture, often outscoring St. Pauli with their superior attacking capabilities. The tactical approach from Dortmund is likely to focus on exploiting St. Pauli's defensive lapses, while St. Pauli will aim to counter-attack and capitalize on set-pieces.
Key Players Spotlight
St. Pauli
- Morgan Guilavogui: With 5 goals this season, he is St. Pauli's top scorer and a key figure in their attack.
- Nikola Vasilj: A crucial player in defense, with a high CompaScore rating.
Borussia Dortmund
- Serhou Guirassy: Leading the scoring charts with 13 goals, his form will be vital for Dortmund's success.
- Jamie Bynoe-Gittens: Another key player with 6 goals, providing additional attacking threat.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Dortmund averages 13.05 shots per match compared to St. Pauli's 10.26, highlighting their attacking intent.
- Defensive Metrics: St. Pauli's average of 3.22 goalkeeper saves per match indicates a busy defense, while Dortmund's 2.68 saves suggest a more controlled defensive approach.
- Possession and Passing: Dortmund's superior passing accuracy and possession (62%) could dictate the match tempo.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the data, Borussia Dortmund is expected to dominate the match, leveraging their attacking strengths and possession play. Key factors such as Guirassy's goal-scoring form and Dortmund's overall squad depth could be decisive. St. Pauli's best chance lies in a disciplined defensive performance and exploiting counter-attacks.
Final Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 St. Pauli Half-Time Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 St. Pauli Both Teams to Score Probability: 72.73% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 72.73%