Match Overview
St. Pauli and Hoffenheim face off in a pivotal Bundesliga match that could shape their respective seasons. St. Pauli, currently struggling in the lower half of the table, needs a win to boost their survival hopes. Meanwhile, Hoffenheim is eyeing a top-half finish and potentially a European spot. The Millerntor-Stadion will be the battleground for this exciting clash.
Odds Analysis
The average odds suggest a slight edge for St. Pauli with odds of 2.27, indicating a 44.1% probability of a home win. Hoffenheim's odds of 3.04 translate to a 32.9% chance of an away victory, while a draw is priced at 3.45, giving it a 29% probability. The odds reflect a closely contested match, with St. Pauli's home advantage slightly tipping the scales in their favor.
Team Analysis
St. Pauli
- Current Form: St. Pauli has struggled this season, with an average of 0.75 goals per match and a possession rate of 44.54%.
- Strengths: Strong defensive interceptions (40.38 per match) and a solid defensive CompaScore rating of 626.93.
- Weaknesses: Low goal-scoring rate and a high expected goals against (1.41).
Hoffenheim
- Current Form: Hoffenheim has been more prolific in attack, averaging 1.29 goals per match and a possession rate of 49.67%.
- Strengths: High offensive CompaScore rating of 840.8 and a better goal-scoring record.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities with 1.92 goals conceded per match.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Hoffenheim has had the upper hand in this fixture, but St. Pauli's home form could level the playing field.
Tactical Approaches
St. Pauli is likely to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on defensive solidity and counter-attacks. Hoffenheim, on the other hand, will aim to control possession and exploit St. Pauli's defensive lapses.
Key Players Spotlight
St. Pauli
- Morgan Guilavogui: Top scorer with 5 goals, crucial for St. Pauli's attacking efforts.
- Nikola Vasilj: Key defensive player with 283.8 points.
Hoffenheim
- Andrej Kramaric: Leading scorer with 7 goals, pivotal in Hoffenheim's attack.
- Leo Østigård: Defensive stalwart with 394.01 points.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Hoffenheim averages more shots on target (4.71) compared to St. Pauli (3.04).
- Defensive Metrics: St. Pauli has a slight edge in interceptions (40.38) over Hoffenheim (39.96).
- Possession and Passing: Hoffenheim's superior possession (49.67%) and passing accuracy could be decisive.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the data, Hoffenheim's attacking strength and St. Pauli's defensive resilience will be key factors. Hoffenheim's ability to score and St. Pauli's home advantage make this a balanced contest. Expect a closely fought match with potential for both teams to score. Final score prediction: St. Pauli 1-2 Hoffenheim.