MATCH OVERVIEW
The upcoming League of Ireland match between Derry City and St. Patrick's Ath is set to be a captivating encounter. Scheduled for May 5, 2025, at the Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, this fixture holds substantial importance as both teams are eager to secure points that could influence their positions in the league table. Derry City, playing at home, will aim to leverage their familiarity with the venue to gain an upper hand, while St. Patrick's Ath will strive to maintain their competitive edge away from home.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a closely contested battle, with Derry City slightly favored at 2.3, indicating a 43.5% probability of a home win. The odds for a draw stand at 3.02, translating to a 33.1% chance, while St. Patrick's Ath's odds are 3.17, giving them a 31.5% probability of winning. These figures highlight the potential for a tight match, with Derry City having a slight edge due to their home advantage.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Derry City
Derry City has shown a solid performance this season, with an average of 1.25 goals per match and a possession rate of 53.58%. Their offensive capabilities are underscored by their average of 11.92 shots per game, with 4.25 on target. However, they have conceded an average of 1.33 goals, indicating room for improvement in defense.
St. Patrick's Ath
St. Patrick's Ath boasts a slightly higher possession rate at 56.33% and averages 1.42 goals per match. Their defense has been more robust, conceding only 0.92 goals on average. With 12.58 shots per game, they are capable of creating scoring opportunities, but their success rate on target is slightly lower than Derry City's.
Head-to-Head
Historically, matches between these two teams have been competitive, with both sides having their share of victories. Derry City's home advantage could play a crucial role, but St. Patrick's Ath's recent form suggests they are well-equipped to challenge.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Derry City
- Michael Duffy: With 5 goals this season, Duffy is a key offensive player for Derry City.
- Mark Connolly: His defensive contributions are vital, with a CompaScore of 55.84.
St. Patrick's Ath
- Aidan Keena: Leading the scoring charts with 5 goals, Keena is a significant threat.
- Joe Redmond: His defensive prowess is crucial, reflected in his CompaScore of 63.04.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Derry City: Average Expected Goals (xG) of 1.59, indicating strong attacking potential.
- St. Patrick's Ath: Slightly lower xG at 1.5, but with a higher goal conversion rate.
Defensive Metrics
- Derry City: Average Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 1.31, showing vulnerability.
- St. Patrick's Ath: Better defensive stats with an xGA of 1.07.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Derry City is slightly favored to win, but St. Patrick's Ath's strong defensive record could lead to a draw. Key factors include Derry City's home advantage and St. Patrick's Ath's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The final score prediction is a narrow 2-1 victory for Derry City, with a half-time score of 1-1. Both teams are likely to score, with a 58% probability, and there's a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.