The significance of this match cannot be overstated, as both Modena and Spezia are looking to climb the Serie B table. Modena, with an average possession of 47.17%, will need to leverage their home advantage to counter Spezia's slightly superior possession stats of 49.5%. The match will be held at Modena's home ground, providing them with a familiar environment to potentially exploit.
Odds Analysis
The odds favor Spezia with a 2.07 chance of winning, indicating a 48.31% probability. Modena's odds stand at 3.64, translating to a 27.47% chance, while a draw is pegged at 3.04, with a 32.89% probability. Spezia's stronger odds reflect their better form and higher CompaScore rating of 1902.03 compared to Modena's 1506.03.
Team Analysis
Modena's current form shows a mixed bag of results, with a goal average of 1.21 per match and a conceded goal average of 1.17. Their offensive play is supported by key players like Antonio Palumbo, who has scored 7 goals this season. Spezia, on the other hand, boasts a higher goal average of 1.5 and a lower conceded goal average of 0.71, indicating a robust defense.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Historically, Spezia has had the upper hand in encounters with Modena, often capitalizing on their superior offensive capabilities. Spezia's tactical approach, focusing on high possession and effective dribbling, could pose challenges for Modena's defense.
Key Players Spotlight
Antonio Palumbo and Pedro Mendes are crucial for Modena, with Palumbo leading the scoring charts. Spezia's Francesco Pio Esposito, with 13 goals, is a formidable opponent, supported by Salvatore Esposito's playmaking abilities.
Statistical Deep Dive
Modena:
- Goals: 1.21
- Possession: 47.17%
- Shots on Target: 3.83
- Expected Goals: 1.4
Spezia:
- Goals: 1.5
- Possession: 49.5%
- Shots on Target: 4.96
- Expected Goals: 2.13
Spezia's offensive metrics, including higher shots on target and expected goals, give them a statistical edge.
Prediction and Conclusion
Spezia's superior form and statistical advantages suggest they are likely to emerge victorious. Key factors include their higher goal-scoring ability and robust defense. Modena will need to capitalize on home advantage and disrupt Spezia's rhythm to secure points.
Final Score Prediction: Spezia 2-1 Modena Half Time Score Prediction: Spezia 1-0 Modena Both Teams to Score Probability: 60% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 55%