Match Overview
The upcoming J League match between Gamba Osaka and Shimizu S-Pulse is a crucial fixture for both teams as they aim to improve their standings early in the season. With Gamba Osaka playing at home, they will look to leverage their familiarity with the Suita City Football Stadium to secure a vital win. Meanwhile, Shimizu S-Pulse will be keen to upset the hosts and gain valuable points on the road.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match are as follows: Gamba Osaka to win at 2.32, a draw at 3.01, and Shimizu S-Pulse to win at 3.07. These odds suggest a competitive match, with Gamba Osaka slightly favored due to their home advantage. The probability of a Gamba Osaka victory stands at approximately 43.1%, while a draw is at 33.2%, and a Shimizu S-Pulse win is at 32.6%. Based on these odds, a narrow win for Gamba Osaka seems the most likely outcome.
Team Analysis
Gamba Osaka
- Current Form: Gamba Osaka has shown mixed form this season, with an average of 1.25 goals per match and a concerning average of 2 goals conceded per game.
- Strengths: Their offensive play is bolstered by an average of 12 shots per game and a high dribble success rate of 13 out of 19.25 attempts.
- Weaknesses: Defensively, they struggle with an average of 2 goals conceded per match and a high expected goals against of 1.4.
Shimizu S-Pulse
- Current Form: Shimizu S-Pulse has been defensively solid, conceding only 0.5 goals per game, and they have a slightly higher expected goals of 1.3.
- Strengths: Their defense is a standout, with a strong CompaScore Defensive Rating of 398.72 and only 4.25 dangerous own half losses per game.
- Weaknesses: Offensively, they have struggled to score, with an average of 1.25 goals per game and no matches with over 2.5 goals.
Key Players Spotlight
- Gamba Osaka: Shu Kurata has been a key player, scoring 2 goals this season. His ability to find the net will be crucial against a strong Shimizu defense.
- Shimizu S-Pulse: Capixaba, with 1 goal and a CompaScore of 199.46, will be vital in breaking down Gamba Osaka's defense.
- Matchup: The battle between Gamba's dribblers and Shimizu's solid defense will be a key factor in determining the outcome.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Gamba Osaka averages 1.25 goals and 12 shots per game, while Shimizu S-Pulse averages 1.25 goals and 10.75 shots.
- Defensive Metrics: Shimizu S-Pulse's defense is superior, conceding only 0.5 goals per game compared to Gamba's 2.
- Possession and Passing: Both teams have similar possession stats, with Gamba at 50% and Shimizu at 49.25%, but Shimizu has a higher pass completion rate.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the analysis, Gamba Osaka's home advantage and offensive capabilities give them a slight edge. However, Shimizu S-Pulse's strong defense could make it a tight contest. Key factors will include Gamba's ability to break down Shimizu's defense and Shimizu's counter-attacking potential.
Final Score Prediction: Gamba Osaka 2-1 Shimizu S-Pulse
Half Time Score Prediction: Gamba Osaka 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse
Both Teams to Score Probability: 50%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 50%