MATCH OVERVIEW
Necaxa will host Querétaro in a pivotal Liga MX match at Estadio Victoria. This fixture is significant for both teams as they aim to climb the league table and secure a better position for the playoffs. Necaxa, playing at home, will be keen to leverage their home advantage and recent form to outplay Querétaro. The match is scheduled for March 29, 2025, at 01:00 AM UTC.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a strong likelihood of a Necaxa victory, with odds of 1.6 for the home team. The probability of a draw stands at 3.56, while Querétaro's chances are rated at 4.5. These odds translate to a 62.5% probability for a Necaxa win, 28.1% for a draw, and 22.2% for a Querétaro victory. Given these figures, Necaxa is expected to dominate, but Querétaro could surprise if they capitalize on their defensive strengths.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Necaxa has shown a solid performance this season, with an average of 1.57 goals per match and a possession rate of 43.14%. Their offensive capabilities are highlighted by their expected goals of 1.61 and successful dribbles averaging 19.18 per game. However, their defense has been slightly porous, conceding 1.64 goals per match.
Querétaro, on the other hand, has struggled offensively, averaging only 0.85 goals per game. Their possession rate is slightly lower at 40.15%, and they have conceded 1.67 goals per match. Despite these challenges, Querétaro's defense has been resilient, with a higher interception rate of 39.48 compared to Necaxa's 37.68.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Necaxa's Diber Cambindo has been a standout performer, scoring 15 goals this season. His ability to find the back of the net will be crucial against Querétaro's defense. Agustín Palavecino and José Paradela also contribute significantly to Necaxa's attacking prowess.
Querétaro will rely on Guillermo Allison's defensive skills and Franco Russo's contributions to keep Necaxa at bay. Rubio Rubín and Pablo Barrera, each with 3 goals, will need to step up to challenge Necaxa's defense.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Necaxa's offensive metrics, such as 13.86 shots per game and 5.07 shots on target, indicate a strong attacking front. Their expected goals against of 1.63 suggest a need for defensive improvement. Querétaro's lower offensive stats, including 8.59 shots per game, highlight their struggles in front of goal.
Defensively, Querétaro's higher successful tackles rate of 4.67 compared to Necaxa's 3.61 could be a key factor in disrupting Necaxa's attacks. Both teams have similar match corners averages, indicating potential set-piece opportunities.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Necaxa is favored to win this match, given their superior offensive statistics and home advantage. Key factors such as Diber Cambindo's goal-scoring form and Necaxa's higher expected goals rate could be decisive. Querétaro's defensive resilience might keep the scoreline competitive, but Necaxa's attacking depth is likely to prevail.
Final Score Prediction: Necaxa 2-1 Querétaro Half Time Score Prediction: Necaxa 1-0 Querétaro Probability of Both Teams to Score: 60% Probability of Over 2.5 Goals: 64%