MATCH OVERVIEW
Peñarol and Alianza Lima are set to face off in a pivotal Copa Libertadores match that could significantly impact their journey in the tournament. Peñarol, playing at home, will look to leverage their familiarity with the Estadio Campeón del Siglo to secure a vital win. Meanwhile, Alianza Lima aims to upset the hosts and boost their chances of advancing.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds favor Peñarol with a 1.61 chance of winning, translating to a probability of approximately 62.1%. The draw is priced at 3.75, offering a 26.7% chance, while Alianza Lima's odds of 5.52 suggest a 18.1% probability of victory. Given these odds, Peñarol is expected to dominate, but Alianza Lima's potential for an upset should not be underestimated.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Peñarol
Peñarol has shown solid form this season, averaging 1.5 goals per match and maintaining a strong defensive record with only 0.5 goals conceded per game. Their possession rate of 44.25% indicates a counter-attacking style, supported by their high dribble success rate of 15.5 per match.
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima, on the other hand, has been more prolific in front of goal, averaging 1.4 goals per game. Their defensive vulnerabilities are evident with 1.3 goals conceded per match. However, their possession rate of 46.1% and successful dribbles suggest they can control the game and create opportunities.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Peñarol has had the upper hand in this fixture, but Alianza Lima's recent form could pose a challenge. Tactical adjustments and player matchups will be crucial in determining the outcome.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Peñarol
- Leonardo Fernández: A key playmaker with 261.38 points this season.
- Maximiliano Silvera: Leading goal scorer with 2 goals.
Alianza Lima
- Hernán Barcos: Top scorer with 4 goals, crucial for Alianza Lima's attack.
- Kevin Quevedo: Another significant contributor with 4 goals.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
- Peñarol: Strong defensive metrics with 46.25 interceptions and 8.75 clearances per match.
- Alianza Lima: Offensive prowess with 12 shots per game and a high BTTS percentage of 70%.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Peñarol's home advantage and defensive solidity make them favorites, but Alianza Lima's attacking threat cannot be ignored. The match could hinge on Peñarol's ability to contain Alianza Lima's forwards. Expect a closely contested game with Peñarol edging out a narrow victory.
Final Score Prediction: Peñarol 2-1 Alianza Lima Half Time Score Prediction: Peñarol 1-0 Alianza Lima Both Teams to Score Probability: 60% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 55%