Match Overview
The La Liga fixture between Deportivo Alavés and Villarreal is set to be a captivating contest, with both teams eager to secure a victory. Deportivo Alavés, playing at home, will look to leverage their familiarity with the Estadio de Mendizorroza to gain an advantage. Meanwhile, Villarreal, known for their attacking prowess, will aim to exploit any defensive lapses from the hosts.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match suggest a closely contested affair, with Villarreal slightly favored to win. The odds are as follows:
- Home Win: 2.94
- Draw: 3.24
- Away Win: 2.46
These odds translate to probabilities of approximately 34% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 41% for an away win. Villarreal's slight edge in the odds reflects their superior form and attacking capabilities this season.
Team Analysis
Deportivo Alavés
- Current Form: Alavés have shown mixed form this season, with an average of 1.12 goals per match and a possession rate of 46.12%.
- Strengths: Strong in duels with a success rate of 48.7% and effective in interceptions, averaging 37.81 per match.
- Weaknesses: Struggle in attack with only 3.54 shots on target per game and a high concession rate of 1.54 goals per match.
Villarreal
- Current Form: Villarreal have been impressive, scoring an average of 1.92 goals per match and maintaining a possession rate of 47.96%.
- Strengths: High offensive output with 13.2 shots per game and a solid passing game, completing 358.84 passes on average.
- Weaknesses: Vulnerable in defense with 1.4 goals conceded per match and a tendency to lose possession in dangerous areas.
Head-to-Head
In recent encounters, Villarreal have had the upper hand, often outscoring Alavés. Their tactical approach, focusing on high pressing and quick transitions, has proven effective against Alavés' defensive setup.
Key Players Spotlight
Deportivo Alavés
- Kike García: Top scorer with 11 goals, crucial for Alavés' attacking play.
- Nahuel Tenaglia: Key defensive player with 232.04 points this season.
Villarreal
- Ayoze Pérez: Leading scorer with 11 goals, pivotal in Villarreal's attack.
- Sergi Cardona: Defensive stalwart with 308 points, essential for maintaining defensive solidity.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Villarreal lead with 1.89 expected goals per match compared to Alavés' 1.2.
- Defensive Metrics: Alavés average more interceptions (37.81) than Villarreal (38.64), indicating a proactive defensive approach.
- Passing and Possession: Villarreal's superior passing accuracy and volume (424.4 passes per match) could dominate the midfield battle.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the statistical analysis and current form, Villarreal are likely to edge out Deportivo Alavés in this encounter. Key factors include Villarreal's superior attacking metrics and Alavés' defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a competitive match with Villarreal potentially securing a narrow victory.
Final Score Prediction: Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Villarreal Half-Time Score Prediction: Deportivo Alavés 0-1 Villarreal Both Teams to Score Probability: 58% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 62%