MATCH OVERVIEW
Alanyaspor and Samsunspor are set to face off in a pivotal Turkey Super League match that could significantly impact their standings. Alanyaspor, currently mid-table, will be eager to climb the ranks, while Samsunspor, slightly ahead, aims to consolidate their position. The match will take place at the Alanya Oba Stadium, a venue known for its vibrant atmosphere, on April 21, 2025, at 17:00 local time.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a closely contested battle, with Alanyaspor slightly favored at 2.4, while Samsunspor is at 2.83, and a draw at 2.76. This indicates a probability of approximately 41.67% for a home win, 35.37% for an away win, and 36.23% for a draw. The odds reflect the competitive nature of both teams, with Alanyaspor's home advantage slightly tipping the scales in their favor.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor has had a mixed season, with an average of 1.1 goals per match and a possession rate of 51%. Their offensive play is characterized by 11 shots per game, with 3.34 on target, and a solid dribbling success rate of 11.55. However, they have conceded 1.48 goals on average, highlighting a defensive vulnerability.
Samsunspor
Samsunspor boasts a slightly better goal-scoring record with 1.5 goals per match and a possession rate of 48.1%. Their defense is more robust, conceding only 1.2 goals on average. Samsunspor's offensive strategy includes 10.97 shots per game, with 4.1 on target, showcasing their efficiency in front of goal.
Head-to-Head
Historically, these teams have had closely contested matches, with neither side dominating the other. This match is expected to follow a similar pattern, with both teams having the potential to secure a win.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Alanyaspor
- Sergio Córdova: With 8 goals this season, Córdova is Alanyaspor's top scorer and a key player to watch.
- Florent Hadergjonaj: Contributing both defensively and offensively, Hadergjonaj has scored 3 goals.
Samsunspor
- Marius Mouandilmadji: Leading Samsunspor's attack with 8 goals, Mouandilmadji is crucial to their offensive strategy.
- Carlo Holse: With 7 goals, Holse provides additional firepower and creativity.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Alanyaspor: Average Expected Goals (xG) of 1.4, indicating potential for scoring.
- Samsunspor: Average xG of 1.28, slightly lower but compensated by higher goal conversion.
Defensive Metrics
- Alanyaspor: Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 1.5, suggesting defensive challenges.
- Samsunspor: xGA of 1.23, reflecting a more solid defensive setup.
Tactical Insights
Alanyaspor's strategy revolves around maintaining possession and creating opportunities through dribbles and crosses. Samsunspor, on the other hand, focuses on efficient passing and exploiting defensive gaps.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, this match is likely to be closely contested, with both teams having strengths and weaknesses. Alanyaspor's home advantage and slightly better odds suggest they might edge out Samsunspor, but the visitors' strong defensive record could lead to a draw.
Final Score Prediction
- Full Time: Alanyaspor 1-1 Samsunspor
- Half Time: Alanyaspor 0-0 Samsunspor
Match-Winning Factors
- Alanyaspor's ability to leverage home advantage and Sergio Córdova's goal-scoring prowess.
- Samsunspor's defensive solidity and Marius Mouandilmadji's attacking threat.
In conclusion, expect a tightly fought match with potential for both teams to score, but a draw seems the most probable outcome given the statistics.