Match Overview
Borussia Dortmund welcomes Augsburg to Signal Iduna Park for a Bundesliga showdown that could shape the trajectory of both teams' seasons. Dortmund, known for their attacking prowess, will look to capitalize on their home advantage, while Augsburg aims to upset the odds and secure valuable points.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match are heavily in favor of Borussia Dortmund, with a home win priced at 1.46, a draw at 4.7, and an away win at 6.45. This translates to a probability of approximately 68.5% for a Dortmund victory, 21.3% for a draw, and 15.5% for an Augsburg win. Given these odds, Dortmund is expected to dominate, but Augsburg's potential for an upset cannot be entirely dismissed.
Team Analysis
Borussia Dortmund
- Current Form: Dortmund has been consistent, with an average of 22 matches played this season.
- Strengths: High possession (62%), strong offensive metrics with 1.86 goals per game, and a high expected goals (xG) of 1.77.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities with 1.68 goals conceded per game.
- Head-to-Head: Historically, Dortmund has had the upper hand against Augsburg, often leveraging their attacking depth.
- Tactical Approach: Expect Dortmund to dominate possession and create numerous chances, focusing on their attacking midfielders to break down Augsburg's defense.
Augsburg
- Current Form: Augsburg has played 23 matches, showing resilience but struggling against top-tier teams.
- Strengths: Solid defensive metrics with 1.52 goals conceded per game and high interception rates (45.87 per game).
- Weaknesses: Lower possession (44.39%) and goal-scoring rate (1.17 goals per game).
- Head-to-Head: Augsburg has occasionally troubled Dortmund with counter-attacks and set-pieces.
- Tactical Approach: Likely to adopt a defensive stance, focusing on quick transitions and exploiting set-piece opportunities.
Key Players Spotlight
Borussia Dortmund
- Serhou Guirassy: Top scorer with 13 goals, crucial in leading the attack.
- Jamie Bynoe-Gittens: Contributed 6 goals, known for his pace and dribbling.
- Nico Schlotterbeck: Defensive stalwart, vital in maintaining defensive solidity.
Augsburg
- Alexis Claude-Maurice: Leading scorer with 9 goals, pivotal in Augsburg's attacking plays.
- Jeffrey Gouweleeuw: Key defensive figure, essential in organizing the backline.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Dortmund averages 13.05 shots per game with 4.68 on target, while Augsburg averages 10.57 shots with 3.57 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Dortmund's expected goals against (xGA) is 1.31, slightly better than Augsburg's 1.4.
- Possession and Passing: Dortmund's superior possession (62%) and passing accuracy (503.95 successful passes per game) could be decisive against Augsburg's 44.39% possession.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the data, Borussia Dortmund is favored to win, leveraging their attacking depth and home advantage. Key factors include Dortmund's ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities, while Augsburg will need to capitalize on counter-attacks and set-pieces.
Final Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Augsburg Half-Time Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Augsburg Both Teams to Score Probability: 72.73% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 72.73%