[ODDS ANALYSIS] Girona enters the match as favorites with average odds of 1.85, indicating a 54.05% probability of a home victory. The odds for a draw stand at 3.58, translating to a 27.93% chance, while Alavés has odds of 4.17, giving them an 23.97% probability of winning. Based on these odds, Girona is expected to have the upper hand, but Alavés could pose a challenge if they capitalize on their opportunities.
[TEAM ANALYSIS] Girona has shown consistent form this season, averaging 1.29 goals per match and maintaining a possession rate of 58%. Their offensive prowess is highlighted by their 57.14% over 2.5 goals percentage. However, their defense has been vulnerable, conceding 1.46 goals per game. Alavés, on the other hand, averages 1.14 goals per match with a possession rate of 45.43%. They have a slightly better defensive record, conceding 1.5 goals per game. Head-to-head, Girona has a slight edge, but Alavés' tactical approach could disrupt Girona's rhythm.
[KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT] Girona's Cristhian Stuani, with 6 goals this season, will be a key figure in their attack. Yangel Herrera and Abel Ruiz, both with 4 goals, will also be crucial in breaking down Alavés' defense. For Alavés, Kike García, who has netted 11 goals, will be the main threat. The matchup between Stuani and García could be decisive in determining the outcome.
[STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE] Girona's offensive metrics, including 9.64 shots per game and 3.79 shots on target, suggest a proactive approach. Their passing accuracy stands at 87.9%, which is superior to Alavés' 77.3%. Defensively, Alavés has a higher interception rate of 38.46 compared to Girona's 33.04, indicating their ability to disrupt opposition play. Girona's higher possession and passing accuracy could give them a statistical advantage.
[PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION] Considering the data, Girona is likely to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. Alavés will need to rely on counter-attacks and set-pieces to challenge Girona's defense. The key to Girona's success will be their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity. Final score prediction: Girona 2-1 Deportivo Alavés.