Match Overview
Empoli and Roma face off in a pivotal Serie A match that could significantly impact their respective campaigns. Empoli, currently struggling in the lower half of the table, will be desperate for a win to boost their survival hopes. Meanwhile, Roma is eyeing a top-four finish and cannot afford to drop points against lower-ranked opposition. The match will take place at the Stadio Carlo Castellani on March 9, 2025, at 17:00 CET.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match suggest a strong likelihood of a Roma victory, with odds of 1.73 for an away win. Empoli's odds stand at 4.79, indicating they are the underdogs, while a draw is priced at 3.69. The probabilities derived from these odds are approximately 57.8% for a Roma win, 21.5% for an Empoli win, and 27.1% for a draw. Based on these figures, Roma is expected to dominate, but Empoli's home advantage could play a crucial role.
Team Analysis
Empoli
- Current Form: Empoli has struggled this season, with an average of 0.85 goals per match and a high concession rate of 1.65 goals per game.
- Strengths: Empoli's dribbling success rate is notable, with 13.58 successful dribbles per match.
- Weaknesses: Their defense has been porous, conceding 1.65 goals per game, and they have a low possession rate of 41.46%.
Roma
- Current Form: Roma has been more consistent, scoring 1.54 goals per match and conceding 1.12 goals per game.
- Strengths: Roma's passing accuracy and possession are strong, with 431.31 successful passes and 54.12% possession.
- Weaknesses: Despite their offensive prowess, Roma's defense can be vulnerable, as indicated by their 1.12 goals conceded per match.
Head-to-Head
In recent encounters, Roma has had the upper hand over Empoli, often securing victories with their superior attacking and defensive capabilities.
Tactical Approaches
Empoli is likely to adopt a defensive approach, focusing on counter-attacks, while Roma will aim to control possession and exploit Empoli's defensive frailties.
Key Players Spotlight
Empoli
- Sebastiano Esposito: With 8 goals this season, Esposito is Empoli's main attacking threat.
- Sebastian Walukiewicz: A key defensive figure with 295.39 points this season.
Roma
- Artem Dovbyk: Leading Roma's attack with 8 goals.
- Paulo Dybala: A creative force with 6 goals and significant playmaking ability.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Roma averages 13.38 shots per game compared to Empoli's 8.62.
- Defensive Metrics: Empoli's defense is weaker, with 1.65 goals conceded per game versus Roma's 1.12.
- Possession and Passing: Roma's superior possession (54.12%) and passing accuracy (431.31 successful passes) give them a tactical edge.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the statistical analysis and current form, Roma is favored to win this match. Key factors include Roma's superior attacking options and Empoli's defensive vulnerabilities. The final score prediction is a 2-1 victory for Roma, with a potential halftime score of 1-0 in favor of Roma. Both teams have a 53.85% chance of scoring, and there's a 46.15% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.