Match Overview
Monza and Empoli face off in a pivotal Serie A match that could significantly impact their season standings. With Monza playing at home, they will look to leverage their familiarity with the U-Power Stadium to gain an advantage over Empoli.
Odds Analysis
The odds favor Empoli with an average of 1.69, indicating a higher probability of an away win. Monza's odds stand at 4.96, suggesting they are the underdogs, while the draw is priced at 3.64. This translates to a 59.17% chance for Empoli to win, a 20.83% chance for Monza, and a 27.47% chance for a draw.
Team Analysis
Monza
- Current Form: Monza has struggled this season, with a low average of 0.71 goals per match and a high concession rate of 1.8 goals.
- Strengths: Their dribbling success rate is commendable at 73.39%, and they maintain a decent possession rate of 48.11%.
- Weaknesses: Monza's defense has been porous, with an expected goals against of 1.77.
Empoli
- Current Form: Empoli has shown slightly better form with 0.77 goals per match and a lower concession rate of 1.57.
- Strengths: Their defensive metrics are stronger, with a higher interception rate and a solid expected goals against of 1.57.
- Weaknesses: Empoli's possession is lower at 41.6%, which could be a disadvantage.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Empoli has had the upper hand in this fixture, often capitalizing on Monza's defensive lapses.
Tactical Approaches
Monza may focus on tightening their defense and exploiting counter-attacks, while Empoli will likely aim to control the midfield and press high to disrupt Monza's rhythm.
Key Players Spotlight
Monza
- Dany Mota: With 5 goals this season, Mota is Monza's top scorer and will be crucial in breaking Empoli's defense.
- Pablo Marí: His defensive prowess will be vital in keeping Empoli's attackers at bay.
Empoli
- Sebastiano Esposito: Leading with 8 goals, Esposito is a key threat in Empoli's attacking lineup.
- Sebastian Walukiewicz: His defensive contributions have been significant, making him a player to watch.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Monza averages 8.23 shots per game, slightly lower than Empoli's 8.71.
- Defensive Metrics: Empoli's clearances are notably higher at 7.74 compared to Monza's 4.63.
- Possession and Passing: Monza's passing accuracy is superior, with 344.97 successful passes per game.
Prediction and Conclusion
Empoli's stronger odds and defensive metrics suggest they are likely to emerge victorious. Key factors include their ability to intercept and clear effectively, coupled with Esposito's goal-scoring form.
Final Score Prediction: Empoli 2-1 Monza Half Time Score Prediction: Empoli 1-0 Monza Both Teams to Score Probability: 51.43% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 45%