Match Overview
Estudiantes and Newell's Old Boys face off in a crucial Primera División match that could significantly impact their season trajectories. Estudiantes, currently in better form, will look to leverage their home advantage at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi. Meanwhile, Newell's Old Boys are eager to improve their away record and secure valuable points.
Odds Analysis
The average odds suggest Estudiantes are favorites with a 1.55 chance of winning, translating to a 64.5% probability. The draw is priced at 3.69, indicating a 27.1% chance, while Newell's Old Boys have a 5.64 odds, giving them a 17.7% probability of victory. Based on these odds, Estudiantes are expected to dominate, but Newell's Old Boys could surprise if they exploit their opportunities.
Team Analysis
Estudiantes
- Current Form: Estudiantes have shown solid form, averaging 1.88 goals per match and conceding only 0.88.
- Strengths: Strong defensive record with an average of 38.63 interceptions and 5.5 clearances per game.
- Weaknesses: Possession is relatively low at 48%, which could be exploited by a possession-dominant team.
Newell's Old Boys
- Current Form: Struggling offensively with only 0.5 goals per match.
- Strengths: Higher possession rate at 54.38% and a decent number of successful dribbles (17.75 per game).
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.5 goals per match.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Estudiantes have had the upper hand in recent encounters, often capitalizing on their defensive solidity and home advantage.
Tactical Approaches
Estudiantes are likely to focus on a structured defensive setup, utilizing their interception and clearance strengths. Newell's Old Boys may aim to control possession and break down Estudiantes' defense with quick dribbles and passes.
Key Players Spotlight
Estudiantes
- Santiago Ascacíbar: Top scorer with 4 goals, crucial in midfield battles.
- Eric Meza: High performance with 208.93 points, pivotal in defense.
Newell's Old Boys
- Saúl Salcedo: Leading with 228.11 points, key in defensive duties.
- Mateo Silvetti: Contributed 2 goals, important in attacking plays.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Estudiantes average 11.75 shots per game, with 4.88 on target, while Newell's Old Boys have 12.38 shots, 4.5 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Estudiantes' expected goals against is 0.95, compared to Newell's Old Boys' 1.18, indicating a stronger defensive setup for Estudiantes.
Prediction and Conclusion
Estudiantes are likely to win, given their superior defensive record and home advantage. Key factors include their ability to maintain defensive solidity and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Newell's Old Boys need to improve their offensive output to challenge Estudiantes effectively.
Final Score Prediction: Estudiantes 2-0 Newell's Old Boys Half Time Score Prediction: Estudiantes 1-0 Newell's Old Boys Both Teams to Score Probability: 50% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 50%