Match Overview
Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli face off in a pivotal Bundesliga match that holds significant implications for both teams. As the season progresses, every point becomes crucial, and this fixture could be a turning point in their campaigns. The match will be held at Holstein Kiel's home stadium, providing them with a slight advantage.
Odds Analysis
The average odds for this match are as follows: Holstein Kiel at 2.82, Draw at 3.39, and St. Pauli at 2.39. These odds suggest a closely contested match, with St. Pauli slightly favored to win. The probability of a Holstein Kiel victory stands at approximately 35.5%, while St. Pauli's chances are around 41.8%. The likelihood of a draw is estimated at 29.5%. Given these odds, St. Pauli might edge out Holstein Kiel, but the match could swing either way.
Team Analysis
Holstein Kiel
- Current Form: Holstein Kiel has played 27 matches this season, with a strong offensive showing, averaging 1.41 goals per game.
- Strengths: High scoring potential with 77.78% of matches featuring over 2.5 goals.
- Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 2.44 goals per game.
- Head-to-Head: Historically, Holstein Kiel has struggled against St. Pauli, but their home advantage could play a crucial role.
St. Pauli
- Current Form: St. Pauli has also played 27 matches, with a more conservative approach, averaging 0.81 goals per game.
- Strengths: Solid defense, conceding only 1.22 goals per game.
- Weaknesses: Limited offensive output, with only 29.63% of matches featuring over 2.5 goals.
- Head-to-Head: St. Pauli has a slight edge in past encounters, which could boost their confidence.
Key Players Spotlight
Holstein Kiel
- Phil Harres: Top scorer with 8 goals, crucial for Kiel's attacking prowess.
- David Zec: Defensive stalwart, contributing significantly to the team's overall performance.
St. Pauli
- Morgan Guilavogui: Leading goal scorer with 5 goals, vital for breaking Kiel's defense.
- Nikola Vasilj: Key defensive player, instrumental in maintaining St. Pauli's solid backline.
Statistical Deep Dive
- Offensive Metrics: Holstein Kiel averages 9.93 shots per game, with 3.96 on target, while St. Pauli averages 10.19 shots, with 3.15 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Kiel's defense is weaker, conceding 2.44 goals per game compared to St. Pauli's 1.22.
- Possession: Both teams have similar possession stats, Kiel at 44.96% and St. Pauli at 44.07%, indicating a balanced midfield battle.
Prediction and Conclusion
Based on the data, St. Pauli appears to have a slight edge due to their defensive solidity and past head-to-head success. However, Holstein Kiel's attacking capabilities could turn the tide if they capitalize on their home advantage. Key factors will include Kiel's ability to breach St. Pauli's defense and St. Pauli's counter-attacking efficiency.
Final Score Prediction: Holstein Kiel 1-2 St. Pauli
Half Time Score Prediction: Holstein Kiel 0-1 St. Pauli
Both Teams to Score Probability: 70%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 60%