The odds for this match are incredibly tight, with Puszcza Niepołomice slightly favored at 2.58 compared to Stal Mielec's 2.56. The draw is priced at 3.24, indicating a closely contested match. The probabilities suggest a 38.76% chance for a home win, 38.98% for an away win, and a 30.86% chance for a draw. Given these odds, the match could swing either way, but the slight edge goes to Stal Mielec based on their slightly better form and statistics.
Puszcza Niepołomice has struggled with possession, averaging 40.61%, which could be a disadvantage against Stal Mielec's 48.16%. Their offensive output is modest, with 1.1 goals per game, while conceding 1.84 goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Stal Mielec, on the other hand, has a balanced approach with 1.03 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per match.
Head-to-head statistics show a competitive rivalry, but Stal Mielec's superior passing accuracy (332.1 successful passes per game) and higher expected goals (1.61) could give them the upper hand. Puszcza Niepołomice's reliance on dribbles (15.77 per game) might be countered by Stal Mielec's solid defensive structure.
Key players like Michalis Kosidis and Piotr Wlazlo will be crucial. Kosidis, with 8 goals, leads Puszcza's attack, while Wlazlo's 9 goals make him a threat for Stal Mielec. The midfield battle between Jani Atanasov and Piotr Wlazlo could be decisive, with both players capable of influencing the game's tempo.
Statistically, Stal Mielec holds advantages in possession, passing, and defensive metrics, which could be pivotal. Their higher expected goals against (1.6) compared to Puszcza's (1.93) suggests a more resilient defense.
In conclusion, while Puszcza Niepołomice has home advantage, Stal Mielec's statistical edge and form might see them emerge victorious. Expect a closely fought match with potential for goals from both sides.