MATCH OVERVIEW
The upcoming La Liga fixture between Deportivo Alavés and Valencia is more than just a regular season match; it's a pivotal clash that could determine the trajectory of both teams as they aim to finish the season on a high note. Deportivo Alavés, playing at home, will be eager to leverage their familiar surroundings at Mendizorrotza Stadium to secure a victory. Meanwhile, Valencia will be looking to capitalize on their recent form and snatch crucial points away from home.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds for this match suggest a competitive encounter, with Deportivo Alavés slightly favored at 2.04, indicating a 49% probability of a home win. The draw is priced at 3.23, reflecting a 31% chance, while Valencia's odds of 3.89 translate to a 26% probability of an away victory. These odds highlight the balanced nature of the contest, with Alavés having a slight edge due to their home advantage.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés has had a mixed season, with an average of 1.03 goals per match and a possession rate of 45.32%. Their defense has been relatively solid, conceding 1.35 goals per game. However, their offensive output has been limited, with only 0.59 assists per match. Key players like Kike García, who has scored 12 goals, will be crucial in breaking down Valencia's defense.
Valencia
Valencia has shown slightly better offensive capabilities, averaging 1.18 goals per match and maintaining a possession rate of 48.03%. Their defense, however, has been more porous, conceding 1.5 goals per game. Players like Hugo Duro, with 10 goals this season, will be vital in their attacking strategy.
Head-to-Head
Historically, matches between these two teams have been closely contested, with both sides having their fair share of victories. The tactical battle will be intriguing, as Alavés might focus on a more defensive setup, while Valencia could exploit their superior passing game.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Deportivo Alavés
- Kike García: With 12 goals this season, García is Alavés' main attacking threat.
- Nahuel Tenaglia: His defensive prowess will be key in thwarting Valencia's attacks.
Valencia
- Hugo Duro: A consistent goal scorer, Duro's form will be crucial for Valencia.
- José Gayà: His ability to support both defense and attack makes him a vital player.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive and Defensive Metrics
- Deportivo Alavés: Average 9.38 shots per game, with 3.47 on target.
- Valencia: Slightly higher with 9.5 shots per game, but fewer on target at 3.06.
Possession and Passing
- Deportivo Alavés: 334.15 passes per game with a success rate of 260.47.
- Valencia: More passes at 407.24 per game, with a higher success rate of 335.76.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Deportivo Alavés has a slight edge due to their home advantage and solid defensive record. However, Valencia's superior passing and possession could prove decisive if they manage to break through Alavés' defense. The match-winning factors will likely hinge on the performances of key players like Kike García and Hugo Duro.
Final Score Prediction
- Full Time: Deportivo Alavés 1-1 Valencia
- Half Time: Deportivo Alavés 0-0 Valencia
The probability for both teams to score is high, given their respective BTTS percentages, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is moderate, suggesting a closely fought draw.