MATCH OVERVIEW
Mazatlán will host Puebla in a crucial Liga MX match at the Estadio de Mazatlán. This fixture is significant for both teams as they aim to climb the league table and establish their presence in the competition. Mazatlán, currently facing challenges in their offensive play, will look to leverage their home advantage against a dynamic Puebla side. The match is set to kick off at 3:00 AM UTC on July 19, 2025.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a closely contested battle, with Mazatlán having a slight edge as the home team. The odds are as follows:
- Mazatlán to win: 2.16
- Draw: 3.26
- Puebla to win: 3.28
These odds translate to probabilities of approximately 46.3% for a Mazatlán victory, 30.7% for a draw, and 30.5% for a Puebla win. Despite Mazatlán's home advantage, Puebla's attacking prowess could tilt the balance in their favor.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Mazatlán
Mazatlán's season has been marked by a lack of offensive output, with an average of 0 goals per match and a possession rate of 28%. Their defensive efforts have been more notable, with 62 interceptions per game. However, their expected goals against (xGA) of 2.17 indicates vulnerability at the back.
Puebla
Puebla, on the other hand, has been impressive offensively, averaging 2 goals per match and maintaining 67% possession. Their ability to score and create chances is evident with 17 shots per game and an expected goals (xG) of 1.71. Defensively, they have conceded 3 goals on average, which could be a concern against Mazatlán.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Mazatlán and Puebla have had competitive encounters, with Puebla often having the upper hand due to their attacking depth. Mazatlán will need to focus on their defensive organization to counter Puebla's offensive threats.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Mazatlán
- Daniel Gutiérrez: Leading the team with 432.54 points, his defensive contributions will be crucial.
- Anderson Duarte: With 163.93 points, his ability to disrupt Puebla's play will be key.
Puebla
- Edgar Guerra: A top performer with 428.13 points and 1 goal this season, Guerra's attacking flair is a major asset.
- Esteban Lozano: Also with 1 goal, Lozano's presence in the forward line adds depth to Puebla's attack.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Mazatlán averages 6 shots per game, with 0 on target, highlighting their struggle in front of goal.
- Puebla's 17 shots per game, with 4 on target, underscores their attacking efficiency.
Defensive Metrics
- Mazatlán's 62 interceptions per game show their defensive resilience.
- Puebla's defensive rating of 314.68 suggests room for improvement.
Possession and Passing
- Mazatlán's 178 passes per game with a 73.6% success rate contrasts with Puebla's 374 passes and 82.4% success rate, indicating Puebla's superior ball control.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Puebla's attacking capabilities and Mazatlán's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a potential victory for the away side. Key factors include Puebla's ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities.
Final Score Prediction
- Mazatlán 1-2 Puebla
Half Time Score Prediction
- Mazatlán 0-1 Puebla
Puebla's offensive strength and Mazatlán's defensive challenges could lead to a high-scoring affair, with both teams likely to find the net.
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