MATCH OVERVIEW
The Copa Libertadores match between Alianza Lima and El Nacional is poised to be a captivating contest. Alianza Lima, with their home advantage, will be keen to capitalize on their recent form and secure a win. Meanwhile, El Nacional, despite being the underdogs, will strive to make a significant impact. This match is crucial for both teams as they aim to progress further in the competition.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds suggest a favorable outcome for Alianza Lima, with odds of 1.78 indicating a 56.18% probability of a home win. The draw is priced at 3.29, translating to a 30.39% chance, while El Nacional's odds of 4.36 reflect a 22.94% probability of an away victory. Based on these odds, Alianza Lima is expected to emerge victorious, but the possibility of a draw cannot be discounted.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Alianza Lima
- Current Form: Alianza Lima has shown consistency with an average of 9 matches played this season.
- Strengths: High Both Teams To Score percentage (77.78%) and solid offensive metrics with 1.56 goals per game.
- Weaknesses: Possession is relatively low at 46%, which could be exploited by El Nacional.
El Nacional
- Current Form: El Nacional has played fewer matches, averaging 4 this season.
- Strengths: Strong possession stats at 60% and effective passing with 470 average passes.
- Weaknesses: Conceding 1.5 goals per game could be a vulnerability against Alianza Lima's attack.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Alianza Lima has had the upper hand in previous encounters, but El Nacional's tactical adjustments could level the playing field.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Alianza Lima
- Hernán Barcos: Leading goal scorer with 4 goals, pivotal in attack.
- Kevin Quevedo: Another key player with 4 goals, contributing significantly to the team's offensive prowess.
El Nacional
- Jawer Guisamano: Top performer with 156.15 points, crucial in midfield.
- Ángel Ledesma: Scored 2 goals, vital for El Nacional's attacking strategy.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
- Offensive Metrics: Alianza Lima averages 12.33 shots per game, with 5.22 on target, while El Nacional has 14.25 shots but only 2.5 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Alianza Lima's interceptions (41.78) and clearances (6.11) are higher than El Nacional's, indicating a stronger defensive setup.
- Passing Efficiency: El Nacional excels in passing with 394 successful passes, compared to Alianza Lima's 261.56.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Alianza Lima is likely to win, given their superior offensive capabilities and home advantage. Key factors include their ability to score and maintain pressure on El Nacional's defense. The final score prediction is 2-1 in favor of Alianza Lima, with a half-time score of 1-0. Both teams are expected to score, with a 77.78% probability, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 55.56%.