MATCH OVERVIEW
The upcoming Brazil Série A match between Cruzeiro and Grêmio is set to be a thrilling encounter. Cruzeiro, playing at home, will be looking to leverage their home advantage to secure a win against Grêmio. This match is crucial for both teams as they aim to improve their standings in the league. The game will be held at the iconic Mineirão Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 18:00 UTC on July 13, 2025.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a strong favor towards Cruzeiro with odds of 1.6 for a home win, indicating a 62.5% probability. The odds for a draw stand at 3.9, translating to a 25.6% chance, while Grêmio's odds of 5 suggest a 20% probability of an away win. Based on these odds, Cruzeiro is expected to dominate the match, but Grêmio's potential for an upset cannot be overlooked.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Cruzeiro
- Current Form: Cruzeiro has shown a solid performance this season with an average of 1.42 goals per match and a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.67 goals per game.
- Strengths: Their defense is particularly strong, with high interception rates and a low number of goals conceded.
- Weaknesses: Possession is relatively low at 44.33%, which could be a concern against a team like Grêmio.
Grêmio
- Current Form: Grêmio has been less consistent, averaging 1 goal per match and conceding 1.25 goals.
- Strengths: They have a higher successful dribble rate and are effective in duels.
- Weaknesses: Their defense has been shaky, with a higher expected goals against (1.46).
Head-to-Head
Historically, Cruzeiro has had the upper hand in recent encounters, but Grêmio has shown resilience in past matches, making this a potentially close contest.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Cruzeiro
- Kaio Jorge: A key player with 8 goals this season, his performance will be crucial for Cruzeiro's attacking success.
- Matheus Pereira: With 239.79 points, he is another vital player in the midfield.
Grêmio
- Martin Braithwaite: Leading Grêmio's attack with 4 goals, his ability to find the net will be essential.
- Mathías Villasanti: A strong presence in the midfield, contributing significantly to Grêmio's play.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
- Offensive Metrics: Cruzeiro averages 12.33 shots per game with 4.42 on target, while Grêmio averages 10.83 shots with 4 on target.
- Defensive Metrics: Cruzeiro's defense is more robust, with fewer goals conceded and higher interception rates.
- Possession and Passing: Both teams have similar passing accuracy, but Cruzeiro's lower possession could be a tactical disadvantage.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Cruzeiro is favored to win, given their strong home performance and defensive solidity. Key factors will include Kaio Jorge's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and Cruzeiro's defensive resilience. Grêmio will need to exploit their dribbling and duel strengths to challenge Cruzeiro's defense.
Final Score Prediction: Cruzeiro 2-1 Grêmio Half Time Score Prediction: Cruzeiro 1-0 Grêmio Both Teams to Score Probability: 58% Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 55%