MATCH OVERVIEW
Chapecoense will host Vila Nova in a pivotal Brazil Série B match that could influence the standings significantly. With Chapecoense aiming to leverage their home advantage, this fixture promises to be a thrilling contest. The match is scheduled to kick off at 22:00 UTC on September 1st, 2025, at Chapecoense's stadium.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds suggest Chapecoense are favorites with odds of 1.91, indicating a 52.4% probability of a home win. The draw is priced at 2.89, translating to a 34.6% chance, while Vila Nova's odds of 4.15 reflect a 24.1% probability of an away victory. Based on these odds, Chapecoense is expected to have the upper hand, but the draw remains a plausible outcome.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Chapecoense has shown a solid form this season, with an average of 1.48 goals per match and a possession rate of 46.09%. Their defensive capabilities are highlighted by conceding only 0.87 goals per game. Vila Nova, on the other hand, averages 0.96 goals per match and possesses a slightly lower possession rate of 44.83%. Chapecoense's strengths lie in their offensive play, while Vila Nova's defense has been relatively robust.
Head-to-head statistics favor Chapecoense, who have a higher rating of 1250.33 compared to Vila Nova's 1113.19. Chapecoense's tactical approach is likely to focus on exploiting Vila Nova's defensive vulnerabilities, while Vila Nova may aim to counter-attack.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Chapecoense's Maílton, with 6 goals this season, will be a key player to watch. Walter Clar and Italo also contribute significantly to the team's attacking prowess. Vila Nova's Gabriel Poveda, with 4 goals, will be crucial in their offensive strategy. The matchup between Maílton and Vila Nova's defense could be decisive.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Chapecoense's offensive metrics, such as 11.61 shots per game and 4.26 shots on target, indicate a strong attacking force. Their defensive stats, including 41.65 interceptions, showcase their ability to disrupt opposition play. Vila Nova's 195.96 duels per match and 95.35 successful duels highlight their physical approach.
Chapecoense's advantage lies in their higher expected goals (1.03) compared to Vila Nova's (1.08), suggesting a more efficient attack. Vila Nova's defensive rating of 222.99 is slightly superior, indicating resilience.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Considering the data, Chapecoense is likely to emerge victorious, leveraging their home advantage and superior attacking metrics. Key factors include Maílton's form and Chapecoense's ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities.
Final Score Prediction: Chapecoense 2-1 Vila Nova Half Time Score Prediction: Chapecoense 1-0 Vila Nova Probability of Both Teams to Score: 47.83% Probability of Over 2.5 Goals: 47.83%
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