MATCH OVERVIEW
Padova and Modena are set to face off in a crucial Serie B encounter that could have significant implications for their respective campaigns. As the season unfolds, both teams are eager to secure points that could bolster their positions in the league standings. The match will be held at Padova's home ground, providing them with a slight edge, but Modena's impressive form this season makes them a tough opponent.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The average odds for this match suggest a competitive fixture, with Modena slightly favored to win at 2.27, compared to Padova's 3.09. The draw is priced at 2.86, indicating a closely contested match. The probabilities derived from these odds are approximately 32.4% for a Padova win, 35% for a Modena victory, and 32.6% for a draw. Modena's slight edge in the odds reflects their stronger form and higher league position.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Padova
Padova has had a mixed season, with an average of 0.93 goals per match and a possession rate of 46.21%. Their defense has been relatively solid, conceding 1.14 goals per game. However, their offensive output has been limited, with only 5 matches featuring over 2.5 goals. Key players like Mattia Bortolussi, who has scored 6 goals, will be crucial in breaking down Modena's defense.
Modena
Modena has been impressive, averaging 1.5 goals per match and maintaining a possession rate of 54.79%. Their defense has been particularly strong, conceding only 0.64 goals per game. With a higher number of shots on target and successful dribbles, Modena's attacking prowess is evident. Ettore Gliozzi, with 7 goals, will be a key figure in their offensive strategy.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Padova
- Mattia Bortolussi: Leading scorer with 6 goals, his performance will be pivotal.
- Filippo Sgarbi: Solid defensive presence, contributing to Padova's stability.
Modena
- Ettore Gliozzi: Top scorer with 7 goals, his ability to find the net is crucial.
- Daniel Tonoli: Key midfielder, providing both defensive and offensive support.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive and Defensive Metrics
- Padova: Average of 9.86 shots per game, with 3.71 on target. Their expected goals stand at 1.09.
- Modena: Average of 15.64 shots per game, with 4.57 on target. Their expected goals are significantly higher at 1.9.
Possession and Passing
- Padova: 46.21% possession, with 390.29 passes per game.
- Modena: 54.79% possession, with 409.36 passes per game.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the statistical analysis and current form, Modena appears to have the upper hand in this fixture. Their superior offensive and defensive metrics, coupled with a higher possession rate, suggest they are likely to control the game. Padova will need to capitalize on their home advantage and rely on key players like Bortolussi to challenge Modena's defense.
Final Score Prediction
Modena is expected to win with a scoreline of 2-1, leveraging their attacking strength and solid defense to secure the victory.
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